The Iowa Effect
Traditionally Iowa football is known for their punishing defense, zone blocking run game and their amazing fans. Fans who wander the streets of Minneapolis caught in a daze, staring up at the glass and concrete as if they were relics of a long-ago age when magic was real.
Over 4 stories? How did they do that? Maybe Ancient Aliens knows.
I’ m just teasing. I love Iowa. I spent a few summers there in the Peace Corps setting up generators and teaching the locals how to dig wells. I had some of the most fulfilling days of my life there until we powered up the generators and the locals chased me out of town thinking I was a demon who had marshaled the forces of fire.
Over the past few years the Hawkeyes’ normally reliable defense has begun to erode. Both passing and rushing defense have backslid but it’s the pass defense in particular that’s sabotaging Iowa. The first clue to their struggles defending the pass is evident in how often teams are taking to the air the past two years against the Hawkeyes compared to 2009 when they finished 3rd in opponent passer rating.
YEAR G ATT ATT/G
2009 13 383 29.46
2010 13 479 36.85
2011 7 245 35.00
5 – 7 attempts per game is a significant boost, and as it turns out those attempts are proving very productive for the opposition:
YEAR G CMP/ATT CMP% YDS TD INT Y/A Y/G TD/G INT/G RATING
2009 13 190/383 47.8 1988 9 21 5.2 152.9 0.69 1.61 90.00
2010 13 298/479 52.2 2997 12 19 6.3 230.5 0.92 1.46 115.11
2011 7 163/245 66.5 1716 12 6 7.0 245.1 1.71 0.85 136.62
By any statistical measure Iowa is getting much worse against the pass over the past three seasons. Some regression was to be expected from their stratospheric heights in 2009, but none of the major defensive passing categories favor them this season:
CMP% PL Y/A PL YDS/G PL RATING PL INT/TD PL PD/G PL
66.5% 113th 7.0 53rd 245.1 90th 136.62 86th 0.5 73rd 3.86 80th
Ultimately what this means for the Gophers is the potential for one of their best passing games of the season. Take a look at the Iowa Bump opposing FBS starting QBs have received against Iowa this season. The following numbers are per game averages.
VS ATT/CMP YDS CMP% Y/A TD INT RATING
Other 13/22 144.9 58.9 6.5 0.82 0.68 120.53
Iowa 20/28 211.3 70.4 7.5 1.50 0.67 147.71
IOWA BUMP +66.4 +11.5 +1.0 +0.68 -0.01 +27.18
That is a significant difference. One of the biggest benefactors of the Iowa bump was JC transfer and walking porn alias Steele Jantz who torched Iowa in a 44-41 shootout at Jack Trice stadium. Let’s compare his averages outside of the Iowa game to his performance in the Iowa game.
VS ATT/CMP YDS CMP% Y/A TD INT RATING
Other 20/38 209 51.3 5.5 1 2 96.98
Iowa 25/37 279 67.6 7.5 4 0 166.6
IOWA BUMP +70 +16.3 +2.0 +3 -2 +69.62
Or to put it another way:
His 166.6 QB Rating against Iowa puts him just two slots below Andrew Luck while his QB Rating of 96.9 against non-Iowa teams puts him in Larry Smith territory.
Does this mean a victory for the Gophers on Saturday? Probably not. Sagarin predicts a 12 point loss while Vegas pegs the Gophers as 16 point dogs.
What it does mean is a chance for an offense starved for success to put some points and yards on the board against the worst pass defense this side of Lawrence. As a Gopher the only points Matthew Limegrover may have piled up are Weight Watcher points (17.4 PPG, 110th overall) but this could be a game where the offense can exhibit significant growth and production.
Additionally if there’s any game left on the schedule that represents a safe opportunity to insert Shortell for extended snaps it’s this game. Iowa’s pass rush should be too slow to expose Shortell’s lack of mobility and he should be able to stand back in the pocket and wait for options to come open.
If only Iowa’s offense was as bad as their defense then we might be on to something.
3 Comments
You’re a smart guy eh? *That* smart guy, I gotcha. Iowa’s best athletes on D are in the backfield, so perhaps the Golden Gophers outa run dive plays for 60 minutes.
Iowa did lose to a horrible Gopher team last year and with their D this year could happen again. Oh by the way Ferentz went 1-10 his first year with Iowa. So maybe this should be Fire Ferentz and Kill site? Oh wait maybe if we give Kill 12 years like Iowa gave Ferentz something might happen. This site is horrible. you say your a Gopher fan, but real fans dont relay their frustration with their team making a page like this. I have a feeling your from Iowa…this sounds just like them.
First, I really enjoy your blog, you do good work here.
A quick comment on your analysis of Iowa defense 2009-2011 and the offensive keys for the gophers. I think you’re putting way too much emphasis on the pass, and I think if the gophers hope to have success against Iowa, it’s going to have to start with running the ball and challenging Iowa at the line of scrimmage.
While it’s true that offenses have looked to attack Iowa with the pass more and more, the increased passes from 2009 to 2010 were due mostly to two big factors: 1) simply having more plays on the field, as Iowa’s 2010 offense couldn’t get off the field fast enough, and 2) a response to Iowa’s run defense. It took one and a half seasons of gamefilm for B10 coaches to recognize that Iowa’s defensive line was outstanding against the run.
I think a better, or more direct, metric is a comparison of yards against in 2010 vs. 2011. Iowa yielded 101.5 yds/game on the ground in 2010, 161.5 yds/game in 2011 (to date). In the passing game, Iowa yielded 230.5 in 2010 and now 245.1 in 2011. Granted, there’s an increase in both, but it’s the weakened run defense that’s really killing Iowa. For a defense that prides itself on “bend don’t break,” to be consistently broken with the run is demoralizing for the team, you can see it in their enthusiasm and play on Saturdays.
Finally, as for Steele Jantz, he’s hardly a good example of Iowa making a bad QB into a Saturday legend — he’s a cyclone. Iowa has a well-established history of making ISU yokels into offensive demigods.
Again, if the gophers hope to win this, it has to start with running the ball. Iowa’s back four on defense are the only steadily improving starters on defense — the defensive line and linebacking has been uncertain throughout the first seven games. If you want to beat Iowa, you run at those front seven, and then you challenge the linebackers’ pass/run recognition by beating their coverage under on third downs.
3 Trackbacks
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